Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Price history
Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.
Thesis
Why the estimate deviates from the market
- 1.No independent signal currently supports a deviation from the market price; the estimate is anchored to the market.
Counter-thesis
Why this may be wrong
- 1.Model confidence is 0.00; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
- 2.Only $0 of depth within 5% of mid; size is limited and slippage will reduce realised edge.
Key catalysts
- 1.Resolution in 114.0 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.
What would invalidate this
- 1.Market price moving to 0% would close the gap.
- 2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
- 3.Liquidity falling materially below $160,984 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.
Signal breakdown
Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.
| Signal | Estimate | Strength | Conf. | Weight | Contribution | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market impliedv1.0.0 | MARKET | 0.4% | 1.00 | 0.95 | 2.84 | +0.0000 | Market-implied probability 0.4% (source: book_mid). |
Our forecast history
Every forecast we have recorded on this market, including the wrong ones. Append-only — never edited after the fact.
| As of | Market | Fair est. | Edge | Conf. | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10h ago | 0.4% | 0.4% | +0.00pp | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 11h ago | 0.4% | 0.4% | +0.00pp | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Order book
captured 10h ago
Tradeability
Whether the edge is actually capturable
- Executable price
- —
- Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee)
- -0.0010
- Spread
- +0.10pp
- Depth within 5%
- $0
- Signal score
- 0.00
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Resolution criteria
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.