Discovery/sportsopenneg-riskPro Football: 2027 Champion

Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship?

Polymarket ↗

stale dataas of 33m agoensemble-v1.2.0late: clob_book, ensemble_forecasts, gamma_events

Market prob.

2.4%

MARKET FACT

Fair est.

2.4%

MODEL ESTIMATE

Edge est.

+0.02pp

MODEL ESTIMATE

Confidence

0.19low

Liquidity

$123.8k

MARKET FACT

24h volume

$63.7k

MARKET FACT

Resolves

6.7mo

Mar 31, 27

Price history

Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.

5 points

Thesis

Why the estimate deviates from the market

1.Order book shows bid-side pressure (+79.3% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $599 of depth. [book_imbalance v1.0.0, weight 0.24]

Counter-thesis

Why this may be wrong

1.Mutually-exclusive (non-exhaustive) group of 32 markets sums to 103.8% against a constraint of at most 100% (+3.9pp overround); normalising implies 2.3% for this market. [cross_market v1.0.0, weight 0.81]
2.Model confidence is 0.19; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
3.Only $62 of depth within 5% of mid; size is limited and slippage will reduce realised edge.

Key catalysts

1.Resolution in 204.6 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.
2.Related-market inconsistency may resolve through arbitrage in either leg.

What would invalidate this

1.Market price moving to 2% would close the gap.
2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
3.Liquidity falling materially below $599 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.

Signal breakdown

Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.

Signal		Estimate	Strength	Conf.	Weight	Contribution	Explanation
Book imbalancev1.0.0	MODEL	3.3%	0.79	0.40	0.24	+0.0850	Order book shows bid-side pressure (+79.3% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $599 of depth.
Cross-marketv1.0.0	MODEL	2.3%	0.19	0.40	0.81	-0.0312	Mutually-exclusive (non-exhaustive) group of 32 markets sums to 103.8% against a constraint of at most 100% (+3.9pp overround); normalising implies 2.3% for this market.
Market impliedv1.0.0	MARKET	2.4%	1.00	0.64	1.91	+0.0000	Market-implied probability 2.4% (source: book_mid).
Momentumv1.0.0	MODEL	2.4%	0.00	0.15	0.09	+0.0000	Price momentum 1h: +0.00 logit, 6h: +0.00 logit (2 horizons, 0% agreement).

Our forecast history

Every forecast we have recorded on this market, including the wrong ones. Append-only — never edited after the fact.

As of	Market	Fair est.	Edge	Conf.	Score
33m ago	2.4%	2.4%	+0.02pp	0.19	0.67
4h ago	2.4%	2.4%	+0.02pp	0.19	0.67
7h ago	2.4%	2.4%	+0.02pp	0.19	0.67
10h ago	2.4%	2.4%	+0.01pp	0.16	0.56
10h ago	2.4%	2.4%	+0.02pp	0.15	0.54

Order book

captured 35m ago

PriceSizeTotal

3.10%503$16

3.00%5,521$166

2.90%8,676$252

2.80%5,732$160

2.70%787$21

2.60%1,667$43

2.50%1,267$32

2.40%2,584$62

2.35%spread +0.10ppimb +0.793

2.30%23,368$537

2.20%7,117$157

2.10%1,753$37

2.00%24,580$492

1.90%1,000$19

1.80%3,256$59

1.70%1,750$30

1.60%1,500$24

Bid depth ±5%

$537

Ask depth ±5%

$62

Tradeability

Whether the edge is actually capturable

Executable price: —
Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee): +0.0078
Spread: +0.10pp
Depth within 5%: $62
Signal score: 0.67

Related markets

Verified deterministic relationships only

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2027 NFL league championship. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2027 NFL league championship per the rules of the NFL (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2027 NFL league championship game is cancelled, postponed after March 31, 2027 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from NFL (https://www.nfl.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.