EDGECAST
What is this?
Discovery/sportsopenneg-riskPro Football: 2027 Champion

Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship?

Polymarket ↗
stale dataas of 33m agoensemble-v1.2.0late: clob_book, ensemble_forecasts, gamma_events
Market prob.
0.9%
MARKET FACT
Fair est.
0.8%
MODEL ESTIMATE
Edge est.
-0.01pp
MODEL ESTIMATE
Confidence
0.16low
Liquidity
$166.5k
MARKET FACT
24h volume
$13.5k
MARKET FACT
Resolves
6.7mo
Mar 31, 27

Price history

Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.

3 points
1%Sep 7Sep 8

Thesis

Why the estimate deviates from the market

  1. 1.Mutually-exclusive (non-exhaustive) group of 32 markets sums to 105.4% against a constraint of at most 100% (+5.4pp overround); normalising implies 0.8% for this market. [cross_market v1.0.0, weight 0.93]

Counter-thesis

Why this may be wrong

  1. 1.Model confidence is 0.16; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
  2. 2.Only $0 of depth within 5% of mid; size is limited and slippage will reduce realised edge.

Key catalysts

  1. 1.Resolution in 205.0 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.
  2. 2.Related-market inconsistency may resolve through arbitrage in either leg.

What would invalidate this

  1. 1.Market price moving to 1% would close the gap.
  2. 2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
  3. 3.Liquidity falling materially below $170,487 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.

Signal breakdown

Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.

SignalEstimateStrengthConf.WeightContributionExplanation
Cross-marketv1.0.0MODEL0.8%0.270.470.93-0.0494Mutually-exclusive (non-exhaustive) group of 32 markets sums to 105.4% against a constraint of at most 100% (+5.4pp overround); normalising implies 0.8% for this market.
Market impliedv1.0.0MARKET0.9%1.000.952.84+0.0000Market-implied probability 0.9% (source: book_mid).

Order book

captured 7h ago

PriceSizeTotal
1.60%503$8
1.50%718$11
1.40%6,690$94
1.30%6,947$90
1.20%6,191$74
1.10%2,264$25
1.00%19,750$197
0.90%14,998$135
0.85%spread +0.10pp
0.80%41,061$328
0.70%26,669$187
0.60%20,500$123
0.50%5,500$28
0.40%5,000$20
0.30%158,467$475
0.20%612,434$1.2k
0.10%1,724,439$1.7k
Bid depth ±5%
$0
Ask depth ±5%
$0

Tradeability

Whether the edge is actually capturable

Executable price
0.50%
Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee)
-0.0045
Spread
+0.10pp
Depth within 5%
$0
Signal score
0.55

Related markets

Verified deterministic relationships only

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2027 NFL league championship. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2027 NFL league championship per the rules of the NFL (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2027 NFL league championship game is cancelled, postponed after March 31, 2027 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from NFL (https://www.nfl.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.