Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
Price history
Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.
Thesis
Why the estimate deviates from the market
- 1.Order book shows ask-side pressure (-41.9% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $45,039 of depth. [book_imbalance v1.0.0, weight 0.40]
- 2.Mutually-exclusive (non-exhaustive) group of 10 markets sums to 102.4% against a constraint of at most 100% (+2.4pp overround); normalising implies 76.7% for this market. [cross_market v1.0.0, weight 0.69]
Counter-thesis
Why this may be wrong
- 1.Model confidence is 0.45; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
Key catalysts
- 1.Resolution in 4.6 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.
- 2.Related-market inconsistency may resolve through arbitrage in either leg.
What would invalidate this
- 1.Market price moving to 78% would close the gap.
- 2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
- 3.Liquidity falling materially below $45,039 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.
Signal breakdown
Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.
| Signal | Estimate | Strength | Conf. | Weight | Contribution | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book imbalancev1.0.0 | MODEL | 75.1% | 0.42 | 0.66 | 0.40 | -0.0753 | Order book shows ask-side pressure (-41.9% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $45,039 of depth. |
| Cross-marketv1.0.0 | MODEL | 76.7% | 0.12 | 0.34 | 0.69 | -0.0714 | Mutually-exclusive (non-exhaustive) group of 10 markets sums to 102.4% against a constraint of at most 100% (+2.4pp overround); normalising implies 76.7% for this market. |
| Liquidity shiftv1.0.0 | MODEL | — | 0.33 | 0.36 | — | — | Liquidity increased 33% to $35,532; spread +0%. |
| Market impliedv1.0.0 | MARKET | 78.5% | 1.00 | 0.86 | 2.57 | +0.0000 | Market-implied probability 78.5% (source: book_mid). |
| Momentumv1.0.0 | MODEL | 78.5% | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.09 | +0.0000 | Price momentum 1h: +0.00 logit, 6h: +0.00 logit (2 horizons, 0% agreement). |
Our forecast history
Every forecast we have recorded on this market, including the wrong ones. Append-only — never edited after the fact.
| As of | Market | Fair est. | Edge | Conf. | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33m ago | 78.5% | 77.5% | -0.97pp | 0.45 | 3.75 |
| 4h ago | 78.5% | 78.7% | +0.20pp | 0.39 | 2.89 |
| 7h ago | 78.5% | 78.1% | -0.40pp | 0.34 | 3.28 |
| 10h ago | 77.5% | 77.5% | +0.02pp | 0.21 | 2.00 |
| 10h ago | 77.5% | 78.1% | +0.63pp | 0.16 | 2.70 |
Order book
captured 36m ago
Tradeability
Whether the edge is actually capturable
- Executable price
- 78.00%
- Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee)
- +0.0203
- Spread
- +1.00pp
- Depth within 5%
- $19,435
- Signal score
- 3.75
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Verified deterministic relationships only
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Resolution criteria
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and assumes office as Prime Minister of Sweden following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must officially assume office. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister assumes office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Sweden; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.