Discovery/politicsopenneg-riskNext Prime Minister of Sweden

Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?

Polymarket ↗

stale dataas of 48m agoensemble-v1.2.0late: clob_book, ensemble_forecasts, gamma_events

Market prob.

0.8%

MARKET FACT

Fair est.

0.8%

MODEL ESTIMATE

Edge est.

+0.00pp

MODEL ESTIMATE

Confidence

0.23low

Liquidity

$114.7k

MARKET FACT

24h volume

$30.1k

MARKET FACT

Resolves

4.6d

Sep 13, 26

Price history

Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.

5 points

Thesis

Why the estimate deviates from the market

1.Price momentum 1h: +0.31 logit, 6h: +0.31 logit (2 horizons, 100% agreement). [momentum v1.0.0, weight 0.27]

Counter-thesis

Why this may be wrong

1.Mutually-exclusive (non-exhaustive) group of 10 markets sums to 102.4% against a constraint of at most 100% (+2.4pp overround); normalising implies 0.7% for this market. [cross_market v1.0.0, weight 0.69]
2.Model confidence is 0.23; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
3.Only $0 of depth within 5% of mid; size is limited and slippage will reduce realised edge.

Key catalysts

1.Resolution in 4.6 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.
2.Related-market inconsistency may resolve through arbitrage in either leg.

What would invalidate this

1.Market price moving to 1% would close the gap.
2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
3.Liquidity falling materially below $114,664 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.

Signal breakdown

Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.

Signal		Estimate	Strength	Conf.	Weight	Contribution	Explanation
Momentumv1.0.0	MODEL	0.8%	0.30	0.45	0.27	+0.0286	Price momentum 1h: +0.31 logit, 6h: +0.31 logit (2 horizons, 100% agreement).
Cross-marketv1.0.0	MODEL	0.7%	0.12	0.34	0.69	-0.0161	Mutually-exclusive (non-exhaustive) group of 10 markets sums to 102.4% against a constraint of at most 100% (+2.4pp overround); normalising implies 0.7% for this market.
Market impliedv1.0.0	MARKET	0.8%	1.00	0.93	2.78	+0.0000	Market-implied probability 0.8% (source: book_mid).

Our forecast history

Every forecast we have recorded on this market, including the wrong ones. Append-only — never edited after the fact.

As of	Market	Fair est.	Edge	Conf.	Score
48m ago	0.8%	0.8%	+0.00pp	0.23	0.81
4h ago	0.5%	0.5%	-0.00pp	0.17	0.58
7h ago	0.5%	0.5%	-0.01pp	0.38	1.34
10h ago	0.6%	0.6%	-0.00pp	0.14	0.50
11h ago	0.6%	0.6%	+0.00pp	0.00	0.00

Order book

captured 50m ago

PriceSizeTotal

2.00%200$4

1.90%8$0

1.80%80$1

1.70%200$3

1.50%2,664$40

1.40%832$12

1.10%25$0

1.00%12,754$128

0.75%spread +0.50pp

0.50%200$1

0.40%4,841$19

0.30%10,469$31

0.20%4,650$9

0.10%4,665$5

Bid depth ±5%

Ask depth ±5%

Tradeability

Whether the edge is actually capturable

Executable price: —
Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee): +0.0020
Spread: +0.50pp
Depth within 5%: $0
Signal score: 0.81

Related markets

Verified deterministic relationships only

Resolution criteria

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and assumes office as Prime Minister of Sweden following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must officially assume office. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister assumes office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Sweden; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.