Will Maura Sullivan be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?
Price history
Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.
Thesis
Why the estimate deviates from the market
- 1.Order book shows bid-side pressure (+50.3% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $37,571 of depth. [book_imbalance v1.0.0, weight 0.39]
Counter-thesis
Why this may be wrong
- 1.Price momentum 1h: -0.07 logit, 6h: +0.00 logit (2 horizons, 50% agreement). [momentum v1.0.0, weight 0.18]
- 2.Model confidence is 0.24; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
Key catalysts
- 1.Resolution in 0.0 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.
What would invalidate this
- 1.Market price moving to 83% would close the gap.
- 2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
- 3.Liquidity falling materially below $37,571 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.
Signal breakdown
Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.
| Signal | Estimate | Strength | Conf. | Weight | Contribution | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book imbalancev1.0.0 | MODEL | 85.5% | 0.50 | 0.65 | 0.39 | +0.0888 | Order book shows bid-side pressure (+50.3% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $37,571 of depth. |
| Momentumv1.0.0 | MODEL | 82.3% | 0.04 | 0.30 | 0.18 | -0.0027 | Price momentum 1h: -0.07 logit, 6h: +0.00 logit (2 horizons, 50% agreement). |
| Cross-marketv1.0.0 | MODEL | 81.2% | 0.08 | 0.31 | — | — | Mutually-exclusive (non-exhaustive) group of 4 markets sums to 101.6% against a constraint of at most 100% (+1.6pp overround); normalising implies 81.2% for this market. |
| Liquidity shiftv1.0.0 | MODEL | — | 0.62 | 0.51 | 0.20 | +0.0000 | Liquidity increased 62% to $37,571; spread +0%. |
| Market impliedv1.0.0 | MARKET | 82.5% | 1.00 | 0.85 | 2.54 | +0.0000 | Market-implied probability 82.5% (source: book_mid). |
Our forecast history
Every forecast we have recorded on this market, including the wrong ones. Append-only — never edited after the fact.
| As of | Market | Fair est. | Edge | Conf. | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3h ago | 82.5% | 83.0% | +0.52pp | 0.24 | 2.96 |
| 6h ago | 83.5% | 83.1% | -0.44pp | 0.25 | 2.96 |
| 9h ago | 82.5% | 83.0% | +0.49pp | 0.15 | 1.68 |
| 10h ago | 82.5% | 82.5% | -0.02pp | 0.21 | 2.00 |
Order book
captured 3h ago
Tradeability
Whether the edge is actually capturable
- Executable price
- 83.90%
- Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee)
- -0.0115
- Spread
- +1.00pp
- Depth within 5%
- $22,378
- Signal score
- 2.96
Related markets
Verified deterministic relationships only
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 8, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.