Iran leadership change by December 31?
Price history
Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.
Thesis
Why the estimate deviates from the market
- 1.Order book shows bid-side pressure (+65.9% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $2,189 of depth. [book_imbalance v1.0.0, weight 0.29]
Counter-thesis
Why this may be wrong
- 1.Model confidence is 0.28; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
- 2.Only $373 of depth within 5% of mid; size is limited and slippage will reduce realised edge.
Key catalysts
- 1.Resolution in 114.9 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.
What would invalidate this
- 1.Market price moving to 14% would close the gap.
- 2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
- 3.Liquidity falling materially below $2,189 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.
Signal breakdown
Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.
| Signal | Estimate | Strength | Conf. | Weight | Contribution | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book imbalancev1.0.0 | MODEL | 17.4% | 0.66 | 0.48 | 0.29 | +0.0849 | Order book shows bid-side pressure (+65.9% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $2,189 of depth. |
| Liquidity shiftv1.0.0 | MODEL | — | 0.45 | 0.43 | 0.17 | +0.0000 | Liquidity decreased 45% to $2,189; spread +0%. |
| Market impliedv1.0.0 | MARKET | 13.5% | 1.00 | 0.68 | 2.05 | +0.0000 | Market-implied probability 13.5% (source: book_mid). |
| Momentumv1.0.0 | MODEL | 13.5% | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.09 | +0.0000 | Price momentum 1h: +0.00 logit, 6h: +0.00 logit (2 horizons, 0% agreement). |
Our forecast history
Every forecast we have recorded on this market, including the wrong ones. Append-only — never edited after the fact.
| As of | Market | Fair est. | Edge | Conf. | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3h ago | 13.5% | 14.3% | +0.77pp | 0.28 | 1.21 |
| 6h ago | 13.5% | 14.3% | +0.76pp | 0.30 | 1.26 |
| 9h ago | 13.5% | 14.1% | +0.61pp | 0.12 | 0.58 |
| 10h ago | 13.5% | 14.1% | +0.61pp | 0.12 | 0.59 |
Order book
captured 3h ago
Tradeability
Whether the edge is actually capturable
- Executable price
- 14.61%
- Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee)
- -0.0244
- Spread
- +1.00pp
- Depth within 5%
- $373
- Signal score
- 1.21
Related markets
Verified deterministic relationships only
- 26.5%Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?ladder
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.