Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 8?
Price history
Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.
Thesis
Why the estimate deviates from the market
- 1.Order book shows ask-side pressure (-59.1% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $21,216 of depth. [book_imbalance v1.0.0, weight 0.37]
- 2.Price momentum 1h: -0.25 logit, 6h: -0.75 logit (2 horizons, 100% agreement). [momentum v1.0.0, weight 0.27]
Counter-thesis
Why this may be wrong
- 1.Model confidence is 0.38; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
Key catalysts
- 1.Resolution in 0.3 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.
What would invalidate this
- 1.Market price moving to 69% would close the gap.
- 2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
- 3.Liquidity falling materially below $21,216 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.
Signal breakdown
Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.
| Signal | Estimate | Strength | Conf. | Weight | Contribution | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book imbalancev1.0.0 | MODEL | 64.7% | 0.59 | 0.62 | 0.37 | -0.0986 | Order book shows ask-side pressure (-59.1% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $21,216 of depth. |
| Momentumv1.0.0 | MODEL | 67.3% | 0.42 | 0.45 | 0.27 | -0.0401 | Price momentum 1h: -0.25 logit, 6h: -0.75 logit (2 horizons, 100% agreement). |
| Liquidity shiftv1.0.0 | MODEL | — | 0.12 | 0.26 | 0.10 | +0.0000 | Liquidity decreased 12% to $21,216; spread +0%. |
| Market impliedv1.0.0 | MARKET | 70.5% | 1.00 | 0.81 | 2.44 | +0.0000 | Market-implied probability 70.5% (source: book_mid). |
Our forecast history
Every forecast we have recorded on this market, including the wrong ones. Append-only — never edited after the fact.
| As of | Market | Fair est. | Edge | Conf. | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34m ago | 70.5% | 68.8% | -1.74pp | 0.38 | 2.78 |
| 4h ago | 75.5% | 75.7% | +0.24pp | 0.23 | 1.81 |
| 7h ago | 83.5% | 83.9% | +0.43pp | 0.24 | 1.91 |
| 10h ago | 85.5% | 85.9% | +0.42pp | 0.15 | 2.05 |
| 10h ago | 87.5% | 87.0% | -0.54pp | 0.15 | 1.67 |
Order book
captured 36m ago
Tradeability
Whether the edge is actually capturable
- Executable price
- 69.01%
- Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee)
- +0.0069
- Spread
- +1.00pp
- Depth within 5%
- $10,552
- Signal score
- 2.78
Related markets
Verified deterministic relationships only
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.