Discovery/politicsopenneg-riskBrazil Presidential Election

Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket ↗

stale dataas of 19m agoensemble-v1.2.0late: clob_book, gamma_events

Market prob.

0.1%

one-sided book

Fair est.

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MODEL ESTIMATE

Edge est.

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MODEL ESTIMATE

Confidence

—

Liquidity

$1.92M

MARKET FACT

24h volume

MARKET FACT

Resolves

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Oct 4, 26

Price history

Market price over time.

0 points

Not enough price history to chart.

Model analysis

No forecast recorded for this market yet. Forecasts are generated for open, tradeable markets above the liquidity threshold.

Order book

No order book captured.

Related markets

Verified deterministic relationships only

Resolution criteria

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.