Discovery/politicsopenneg-riskBrazil Presidential Election

Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket ↗

stale dataas of 19m agoensemble-v1.2.0late: clob_book, gamma_events

Market prob.

1.4%

MARKET FACT

Fair est.

1.3%

MODEL ESTIMATE

Edge est.

-0.01pp

MODEL ESTIMATE

Confidence

0.20low

Liquidity

$442.3k

MARKET FACT

24h volume

$39.5k

MARKET FACT

Resolves

25.6d

Oct 4, 26

Price history

Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.

5 points

Thesis

Why the estimate deviates from the market

1.Order book shows ask-side pressure (-18.4% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $97 of depth. [book_imbalance v1.0.0, weight 0.17]

Counter-thesis

Why this may be wrong

1.Model confidence is 0.20; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
2.Only $40 of depth within 5% of mid; size is limited and slippage will reduce realised edge.

Key catalysts

1.Resolution in 25.6 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.

What would invalidate this

1.Market price moving to 1% would close the gap.
2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
3.Liquidity falling materially below $97 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.

Signal breakdown

Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.

Signal		Estimate	Strength	Conf.	Weight	Contribution	Explanation
Book imbalancev1.0.0	MODEL	1.2%	0.18	0.28	0.17	-0.0141	Order book shows ask-side pressure (-18.4% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $97 of depth.
Cross-marketv1.0.0	MODEL	1.3%	0.11	0.34	—	—	Mutually-exclusive (non-exhaustive) group of 19 markets sums to 102.2% against a constraint of at most 100% (+2.2pp overround); normalising implies 1.3% for this market.
Liquidity shiftv1.0.0	MODEL	—	0.52	0.46	0.18	+0.0000	Liquidity decreased 52% to $97; spread +0%.
Market impliedv1.0.0	MARKET	1.4%	1.00	0.53	1.58	+0.0000	Market-implied probability 1.4% (source: book_mid).
Momentumv1.0.0	MODEL	1.4%	0.00	0.15	0.09	+0.0000	Price momentum 1h: +0.00 logit, 6h: +0.00 logit (2 horizons, 0% agreement).

Our forecast history

Every forecast we have recorded on this market, including the wrong ones. Append-only — never edited after the fact.

As of	Market	Fair est.	Edge	Conf.	Score
19m ago	1.4%	1.3%	-0.01pp	0.20	0.69
3h ago	1.4%	1.4%	+0.04pp	0.24	0.84
6h ago	1.4%	1.4%	+0.06pp	0.23	0.82
9h ago	1.3%	1.3%	-0.00pp	0.15	0.52
10h ago	1.4%	1.4%	-0.00pp	0.15	0.52

Order book

captured 22m ago

PriceSizeTotal

2.10%394$8

2.00%19,784$396

1.90%1,883$36

1.80%2,610$47

1.70%16,289$277

1.60%3,213$51

1.50%10,136$152

1.40%4,110$58

1.35%spread +0.10ppimb -0.184

1.30%3,048$40

1.20%18,789$225

1.10%6,564$72

1.00%4,419$44

0.90%16,146$145

0.80%14,679$117

0.70%23,017$161

0.60%50,638$304

Bid depth ±5%

$40

Ask depth ±5%

$58

Tradeability

Whether the edge is actually capturable

Executable price: 0.84%
Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee): -0.0060
Spread: +0.10pp
Depth within 5%: $40
Signal score: 0.69

Related markets

Verified deterministic relationships only

Resolution criteria

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.