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Markets where our estimated fair probability differs from the market price.Fair values are model estimates, not truth.

stale dataas of 36m agoensemble-v1.2.0late: clob_book, ensemble_forecasts, gamma_events
Category
allpoliticscryptoeconomicstechnologysportsgeopoliticsentertainmentscienceother
Min edge≥ 0.5pp≥ 2pp≥ 5pp≥ 10pp
Min liquidity≥ $2k≥ $10k≥ $50k≥ $250k
Confidenceany≥ 0.20≥ 0.35 medium≥ 0.60 high
Direction / horizonbothunderpricedoverpricedany≤ 2d≤ 14d≤ 90d
Sort bySignal scoreEdge sizeConfidenceExpected valueLiquidityResolving soon

2 opportunities

Suppressed markets (thin liquidity, one-sided book, low confidence) are excluded but still recorded in the forecast history.

MarketMarketFair est.EdgeConf.ScoreEV / $1LiquiditySpreadResolvesTop signal
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?politics
51.5%54.2%+2.70pp0.56medium4.57+0.041$393.0k+1.0pp7.6dbook_imbalance(3)
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?economics
52.5%50.5%-2.00pp0.45medium3.46+0.013$256.9k+1.0pp3.0mobook_imbalance(2)

Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.