Discovery/sportsopenneg-riskUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion

Will Manchester United win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?

Polymarket ↗

stale dataas of 33m agoensemble-v1.2.0late: clob_book, ensemble_forecasts, gamma_events

Market prob.

2.5%

MARKET FACT

Fair est.

2.6%

MODEL ESTIMATE

Edge est.

+0.04pp

MODEL ESTIMATE

Confidence

0.29low

Liquidity

$158.0k

MARKET FACT

24h volume

$27.6k

MARKET FACT

Resolves

8.7mo

May 30, 27

Price history

Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.

4 points

Thesis

Why the estimate deviates from the market

1.Order book shows bid-side pressure (+99.2% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $2,518 of depth. [book_imbalance v1.0.0, weight 0.29]

Counter-thesis

Why this may be wrong

1.Mutually-exclusive (non-exhaustive) group of 36 markets sums to 106.0% against a constraint of at most 100% (+6.0pp overround); normalising implies 2.4% for this market. [cross_market v1.0.0, weight 0.98]
2.Price momentum 1h: +0.00 logit, 6h: -0.04 logit (2 horizons, 50% agreement). [momentum v1.0.0, weight 0.18]
3.Model confidence is 0.29; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
4.Only $10 of depth within 5% of mid; size is limited and slippage will reduce realised edge.

Key catalysts

1.Resolution in 264.6 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.
2.Related-market inconsistency may resolve through arbitrage in either leg.

What would invalidate this

1.Market price moving to 3% would close the gap.
2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
3.Liquidity falling materially below $2,518 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.

Signal breakdown

Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.

Signal		Estimate	Strength	Conf.	Weight	Contribution	Explanation
Book imbalancev1.0.0	MODEL	3.9%	0.99	0.49	0.29	+0.1301	Order book shows bid-side pressure (+99.2% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $2,518 of depth.
Cross-marketv1.0.0	MODEL	2.4%	0.30	0.49	0.98	-0.0586	Mutually-exclusive (non-exhaustive) group of 36 markets sums to 106.0% against a constraint of at most 100% (+6.0pp overround); normalising implies 2.4% for this market.
Momentumv1.0.0	MODEL	2.5%	0.02	0.30	0.18	-0.0010	Price momentum 1h: +0.00 logit, 6h: -0.04 logit (2 horizons, 50% agreement).
Liquidity shiftv1.0.0	MODEL	—	1.00	0.55	0.22	+0.0000	Liquidity increased 9755% to $2,518; spread +0%.
Market impliedv1.0.0	MARKET	2.5%	1.00	0.72	2.17	+0.0000	Market-implied probability 2.5% (source: book_mid).

Our forecast history

Every forecast we have recorded on this market, including the wrong ones. Append-only — never edited after the fact.

As of	Market	Fair est.	Edge	Conf.	Score
33m ago	2.5%	2.6%	+0.04pp	0.29	1.02
4h ago	2.5%	2.6%	+0.04pp	0.29	1.03
7h ago	2.6%	2.6%	-0.01pp	0.11	0.38
10h ago	2.6%	2.6%	-0.01pp	0.11	0.38

Order book

captured 36m ago

PriceSizeTotal

3.30%1,400$46

3.20%1,087$35

3.10%100$3

3.00%1,107$33

2.90%518$15

2.80%100$3

2.70%200$5

2.60%396$10

2.55%spread +0.10ppimb +0.992

2.50%100,320$2.5k

2.40%15,539$373

2.30%8,614$198

2.20%10,786$237

2.10%30,250$635

2.00%100,350$2.0k

1.90%2,500$48

1.70%353$6

Bid depth ±5%

$2.5k

Ask depth ±5%

$10

Tradeability

Whether the edge is actually capturable

Executable price: —
Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee): +0.0128
Spread: +0.10pp
Depth within 5%: $10
Signal score: 1.02

Related markets

Verified deterministic relationships only

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship per the rules of UEFA Champions League (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League season is cancelled, postponed after June 19, 2027, 11:59 PM ET or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA Champions League; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.