Discovery/sportsopenneg-riskUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion

Will Villarreal win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?

Polymarket ↗

stale dataas of 33m agoensemble-v1.2.0late: clob_book, ensemble_forecasts, gamma_events

Market prob.

0.4%

MARKET FACT

Fair est.

0.3%

MODEL ESTIMATE

Edge est.

-0.00pp

MODEL ESTIMATE

Confidence

0.16low

Liquidity

$261.5k

MARKET FACT

24h volume

—

MARKET FACT

Resolves

8.7mo

May 30, 27

Price history

Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.

4 points

Thesis

Why the estimate deviates from the market

1.Mutually-exclusive (non-exhaustive) group of 36 markets sums to 105.2% against a constraint of at most 100% (+5.2pp overround); normalising implies 0.3% for this market. [cross_market v1.0.0, weight 0.92]

Counter-thesis

Why this may be wrong

1.Model confidence is 0.16; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
2.Only $0 of depth within 5% of mid; size is limited and slippage will reduce realised edge.

Key catalysts

1.Resolution in 265.0 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.
2.Related-market inconsistency may resolve through arbitrage in either leg.

What would invalidate this

1.Market price moving to 0% would close the gap.
2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
3.Liquidity falling materially below $263,767 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.

Signal breakdown

Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.

Signal		Estimate	Strength	Conf.	Weight	Contribution	Explanation
Cross-marketv1.0.0	MODEL	0.3%	0.26	0.46	0.92	-0.0466	Mutually-exclusive (non-exhaustive) group of 36 markets sums to 105.2% against a constraint of at most 100% (+5.2pp overround); normalising implies 0.3% for this market.
Market impliedv1.0.0	MARKET	0.4%	1.00	0.95	2.84	+0.0000	Market-implied probability 0.4% (source: book_mid).

Our forecast history

Every forecast we have recorded on this market, including the wrong ones. Append-only — never edited after the fact.

As of	Market	Fair est.	Edge	Conf.	Score
10h ago	0.4%	0.3%	-0.00pp	0.16	0.55
10h ago	0.4%	0.3%	-0.00pp	0.16	0.55

Order book

captured 4h ago

PriceSizeTotal

1.10%167$2

1.00%438$4

0.90%167$2

0.80%167$1

0.70%1,498$10

0.60%105$1

0.50%82,090$410

0.40%81,919$328

0.35%spread +0.10pp

0.30%26,576$80

0.20%430,227$860

0.10%1,228,791$1.2k

Bid depth ±5%

Ask depth ±5%

Tradeability

Whether the edge is actually capturable

Executable price: 0.19%
Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee): -0.0025
Spread: +0.10pp
Depth within 5%: $0
Signal score: 0.55

Related markets

Verified deterministic relationships only

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship per the rules of UEFA Champions League (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League season is cancelled, postponed after June 19, 2027, 11:59 PM ET or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA Champions League; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.