Discovery/sportsopenneg-riskUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion

Will Borussia Dortmund win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?

Polymarket ↗

stale dataas of 33m agoensemble-v1.2.0late: clob_book, ensemble_forecasts, gamma_events

Market prob.

0.8%

MARKET FACT

Fair est.

0.8%

MODEL ESTIMATE

Edge est.

-0.01pp

MODEL ESTIMATE

Confidence

0.26low

Liquidity

$201.3k

MARKET FACT

24h volume

$27.4k

MARKET FACT

Resolves

8.7mo

May 30, 27

Price history

Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.

5 points

Thesis

Why the estimate deviates from the market

1.Mutually-exclusive (non-exhaustive) group of 36 markets sums to 106.1% against a constraint of at most 100% (+6.1pp overround); normalising implies 0.8% for this market. [cross_market v1.0.0, weight 0.99]

Counter-thesis

Why this may be wrong

1.Price momentum 1h: +0.13 logit, 6h: +0.13 logit (2 horizons, 100% agreement). [momentum v1.0.0, weight 0.27]
2.Model confidence is 0.26; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
3.Only $0 of depth within 5% of mid; size is limited and slippage will reduce realised edge.

Key catalysts

1.Resolution in 264.6 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.
2.Related-market inconsistency may resolve through arbitrage in either leg.

What would invalidate this

1.Market price moving to 1% would close the gap.
2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
3.Liquidity falling materially below $201,305 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.

Signal breakdown

Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.

Signal		Estimate	Strength	Conf.	Weight	Contribution	Explanation
Cross-marketv1.0.0	MODEL	0.8%	0.30	0.49	0.99	-0.0590	Mutually-exclusive (non-exhaustive) group of 36 markets sums to 106.1% against a constraint of at most 100% (+6.1pp overround); normalising implies 0.8% for this market.
Momentumv1.0.0	MODEL	0.9%	0.13	0.45	0.27	+0.0119	Price momentum 1h: +0.13 logit, 6h: +0.13 logit (2 horizons, 100% agreement).
Market impliedv1.0.0	MARKET	0.9%	1.00	0.95	2.84	+0.0000	Market-implied probability 0.9% (source: book_mid).

Our forecast history

Every forecast we have recorded on this market, including the wrong ones. Append-only — never edited after the fact.

As of	Market	Fair est.	Edge	Conf.	Score
33m ago	0.9%	0.8%	-0.01pp	0.26	0.91
4h ago	0.8%	0.7%	-0.01pp	0.40	1.42
10h ago	0.8%	0.7%	-0.01pp	0.16	0.54
10h ago	0.8%	0.7%	-0.01pp	0.15	0.54

Order book

captured 35m ago

PriceSizeTotal

1.60%225$4

1.50%1,684$25

1.40%10,972$154

1.30%100$1

1.20%100$1

1.10%15,123$166

1.00%25,257$253

0.90%9,029$81

0.85%spread +0.10pp

0.80%29,241$234

0.70%17,725$124

0.60%39,761$239

0.50%160,900$805

0.40%71,000$284

0.30%143,467$430

0.20%411,330$823

0.10%1,349,791$1.3k

Bid depth ±5%

Ask depth ±5%

Tradeability

Whether the edge is actually capturable

Executable price: 0.60%
Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee): -0.0035
Spread: +0.10pp
Depth within 5%: $0
Signal score: 0.91

Related markets

Verified deterministic relationships only

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship per the rules of UEFA Champions League (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League season is cancelled, postponed after June 19, 2027, 11:59 PM ET or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA Champions League; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.