Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?
Price history
Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.
Thesis
Why the estimate deviates from the market
- 1.Order book shows bid-side pressure (+81.6% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $22,498 of depth. [book_imbalance v1.0.0, weight 0.37]
Counter-thesis
Why this may be wrong
- 1.Price momentum 1h: +0.00 logit, 6h: -0.06 logit, 24h: -0.04 logit (3 horizons, 67% agreement). [momentum v1.0.0, weight 0.27]
- 2.Model confidence is 0.23; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
- 3.Only $4,541 of depth within 5% of mid; size is limited and slippage will reduce realised edge.
Key catalysts
- 1.Resolution in 4.7 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.
What would invalidate this
- 1.Market price moving to 58% would close the gap.
- 2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
- 3.Liquidity falling materially below $22,498 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.
Signal breakdown
Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.
| Signal | Estimate | Strength | Conf. | Weight | Contribution | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book imbalancev1.0.0 | MODEL | 65.2% | 0.82 | 0.62 | 0.37 | +0.1369 | Order book shows bid-side pressure (+81.6% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $22,498 of depth. |
| Momentumv1.0.0 | MODEL | 56.3% | 0.03 | 0.45 | 0.27 | -0.0027 | Price momentum 1h: +0.00 logit, 6h: -0.06 logit, 24h: -0.04 logit (3 horizons, 67% agreement). |
| Cross-marketv1.0.0 | MODEL | 55.4% | 0.10 | 0.33 | — | — | Mutually-exclusive (non-exhaustive) group of 11 markets sums to 102.0% against a constraint of at most 100% (+2.0pp overround); normalising implies 55.4% for this market. |
| Liquidity shiftv1.0.0 | MODEL | — | 0.19 | 0.29 | 0.12 | +0.0000 | Liquidity decreased 19% to $22,498; spread -50%. |
| Market impliedv1.0.0 | MARKET | 56.5% | 1.00 | 0.82 | 2.45 | +0.0000 | Market-implied probability 56.5% (source: book_mid). |
Our forecast history
Every forecast we have recorded on this market, including the wrong ones. Append-only — never edited after the fact.
| As of | Market | Fair est. | Edge | Conf. | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3h ago | 56.5% | 57.7% | +1.18pp | 0.23 | 1.52 |
| 6h ago | 56.5% | 57.1% | +0.63pp | 0.33 | 1.71 |
| 9h ago | 58.0% | 57.8% | -0.17pp | 0.31 | 2.67 |
| 10h ago | 57.5% | 58.0% | +0.47pp | 0.34 | 2.94 |
Order book
captured 3h ago
Tradeability
Whether the edge is actually capturable
- Executable price
- 57.94%
- Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee)
- -0.0056
- Spread
- +1.00pp
- Depth within 5%
- $4,541
- Signal score
- 1.52
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Recent trades
| Time | Side | Price | Notional |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4h ago | sell | 56.0% | $1 |
| 4h ago | buy | 57.3% | $1000 |
| 4h ago | buy | 57.0% | $3 |
| 4h ago | buy | 57.0% | $1.2k |
| 4h ago | sell | 56.0% | $6 |
| 4h ago | buy | 57.0% | $10 |
| 4h ago | sell | 56.0% | $10 |
| 4h ago | buy | 57.0% | $10 |
| 4h ago | buy | 57.0% | $1.1k |
| 4h ago | sell | 56.0% | $5 |
| 4h ago | sell | 43.0% | $7 |
| 4h ago | buy | 57.0% | $2 |
| 4h ago | buy | 44.0% | $1 |
| 4h ago | buy | 44.0% | $1 |
| 4h ago | buy | 44.0% | $1 |
| 5h ago | sell | 56.0% | $1 |
| 5h ago | buy | 57.0% | $1 |
| 5h ago | buy | 57.0% | $1 |
| 5h ago | buy | 57.0% | $2 |
| 5h ago | buy | 57.0% | $60 |
| 5h ago | buy | 57.0% | $3 |
| 5h ago | buy | 57.0% | $1 |
| 5h ago | buy | 57.0% | $8 |
| 5h ago | sell | 56.0% | $418 |
| 5h ago | buy | 44.0% | $3 |
Resolution criteria
The 2026 U.S. Open tennis tournament is scheduled for August 23 - September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.