EDGECAST
What is this?
Discovery/sportsopenneg-risk2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)

Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Men's US Open?

Polymarket ↗
stale dataas of 33m agoensemble-v1.2.0late: clob_book, ensemble_forecasts, gamma_events
Market prob.
2.1%
MARKET FACT
Fair est.
2.1%
MODEL ESTIMATE
Edge est.
-0.01pp
MODEL ESTIMATE
Confidence
0.17low
Liquidity
$87.7k
MARKET FACT
24h volume
$56.6k
MARKET FACT
Resolves
4.6d
Sep 13, 26

Price history

Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.

5 points
2%2%Sep 7Sep 8

Thesis

Why the estimate deviates from the market

  1. 1.Price momentum 1h: +0.00 logit, 6h: -0.20 logit (2 horizons, 50% agreement). [momentum v1.0.0, weight 0.18]

Counter-thesis

Why this may be wrong

  1. 1.Model confidence is 0.17; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
  2. 2.Only $0 of depth within 5% of mid; size is limited and slippage will reduce realised edge.

Key catalysts

  1. 1.Resolution in 4.6 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.

What would invalidate this

  1. 1.Market price moving to 2% would close the gap.
  2. 2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
  3. 3.Liquidity falling materially below $87,674 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.

Signal breakdown

Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.

SignalEstimateStrengthConf.WeightContributionExplanation
Momentumv1.0.0MODEL2.0%0.080.300.18-0.0050Price momentum 1h: +0.00 logit, 6h: -0.20 logit (2 horizons, 50% agreement).
Cross-marketv1.0.0MODEL2.5%0.100.33——Mutually-exclusive (non-exhaustive) group of 11 markets sums to 102.0% against a constraint of at most 100% (+2.0pp overround); normalising implies 2.5% for this market.
Market impliedv1.0.0MARKET2.1%1.000.922.77+0.0000Market-implied probability 2.1% (source: book_mid).

Our forecast history

Every forecast we have recorded on this market, including the wrong ones. Append-only — never edited after the fact.

As ofMarketFair est.EdgeConf.Score
33m ago2.1%2.1%-0.01pp0.170.58
4h ago2.1%2.1%+0.01pp0.150.53
7h ago2.5%2.6%+0.02pp0.220.76
10h ago1.3%1.3%-0.00pp0.130.46
10h ago1.3%1.2%-0.01pp0.130.47

Order book

captured 37m ago

PriceSizeTotal
3.40%30$1
3.30%30$1
3.20%1,561$50
3.10%2,530$78
2.80%7,621$213
2.70%5,300$143
2.60%200$5
2.30%20$0
2.10%spread +0.40pp
1.90%436$8
1.80%1,167$21
1.70%2,725$46
1.60%3,618$58
1.50%16,283$244
1.40%71$1
1.30%202$3
1.20%1,750$21
Bid depth ±5%
$0
Ask depth ±5%
$0

Tradeability

Whether the edge is actually capturable

Executable price
—
Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee)
-0.0009
Spread
+0.40pp
Depth within 5%
$0
Signal score
0.58

Related markets

Verified deterministic relationships only

Resolution criteria

The 2026 U.S. Open tennis tournament is scheduled for August 23 - September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.