Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026?
Price history
Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.
Thesis
Why the estimate deviates from the market
- 1.Price momentum 1h: -6.59 logit, 6h: -6.81 logit, 24h: -6.74 logit (3 horizons, 100% agreement). [momentum v1.0.0, weight 0.36]
- 2.Mutually-exclusive group of 17 markets sums to 102.6% against a constraint of exactly 100% (+2.6pp overround); normalising implies 0.0% for this market. [cross_market v1.0.0, weight 0.71]
Counter-thesis
Why this may be wrong
- 1.Model confidence is 0.39; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
- 2.Only $0 of depth within 5% of mid; size is limited and slippage will reduce realised edge.
Key catalysts
- 1.Resolution in 0.3 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.
- 2.Related-market inconsistency may resolve through arbitrage in either leg.
What would invalidate this
- 1.Market price moving to 0% would close the gap.
- 2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
- 3.Liquidity falling materially below $77,312 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.
Signal breakdown
Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.
| Signal | Estimate | Strength | Conf. | Weight | Contribution | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Momentumv1.0.0 | MODEL | 0.0% | 1.00 | 0.60 | 0.36 | -0.1260 | Price momentum 1h: -6.59 logit, 6h: -6.81 logit, 24h: -6.74 logit (3 horizons, 100% agreement). |
| Cross-marketv1.0.0 | MODEL | 0.0% | 0.13 | 0.35 | 0.71 | -0.0182 | Mutually-exclusive group of 17 markets sums to 102.6% against a constraint of exactly 100% (+2.6pp overround); normalising implies 0.0% for this market. |
| Book imbalancev1.0.0 | MODEL | 23.6% | 0.32 | 0.23 | — | — | Order book shows bid-side pressure (+32.1% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $40 of depth. |
| Liquidity shiftv1.0.0 | MODEL | — | 1.00 | 0.55 | 0.22 | +0.0000 | Liquidity increased 40916% to $77,312. |
| Market impliedv1.0.0 | MARKET | 0.1% | 1.00 | 0.93 | 2.80 | +0.0000 | Market-implied probability 0.1% (source: last_tick). |
Our forecast history
Every forecast we have recorded on this market, including the wrong ones. Append-only — never edited after the fact.
| As of | Market | Fair est. | Edge | Conf. | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7h ago | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.00pp | 0.39 | 1.37 |
| 10h ago | 21.1% | 21.1% | +0.02pp | 0.16 | 0.57 |
| 13h ago | 31.1% | 31.5% | +0.38pp | 0.21 | 0.83 |
| 16h ago | 25.0% | 24.6% | -0.41pp | 0.27 | 1.06 |
| 17h ago | 26.7% | 26.7% | +0.00pp | 0.12 | 0.42 |
Order book
captured 7h ago
One-sided order book.
Only one side has resting orders, so there is no mid price. The venue reports a price of ask/2 in this state, which is an arithmetic artefact rather than a probability — this market is excluded from edge analysis.
- Best bid
- —
- Best ask
- 0.10%
Tradeability
Whether the edge is actually capturable
- Executable price
- —
- Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee)
- -0.0010
- Spread
- —
- Depth within 5%
- $0
- Signal score
- 1.37
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Verified deterministic relationships only
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Resolution criteria
Source: https://x.com/elonmusk
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 1 12:00 PM ET to September 8, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.