EDGECAST
What is this?
Discovery/politicsopenneg-riskElon Musk # tweets September 1 - September 8, 2026?

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026?

Polymarket ↗
stale dataas of 6m agoensemble-v1.2.0late: clob_book
Market prob.
0.1%
one-sided book
Fair est.
0.1%
MODEL ESTIMATE
Edge est.
-0.00pp
MODEL ESTIMATE
Confidence
0.16low
Liquidity
$49.6k
MARKET FACT
24h volume
$108.4k
MARKET FACT
Resolves
48m
Sep 8, 26

Price history

Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.

6 points
0%0%Sep 7Sep 8

Thesis

Why the estimate deviates from the market

  1. 1.Price momentum 1h: +0.00 logit, 6h: -0.85 logit (2 horizons, 50% agreement). [momentum v1.0.0, weight 0.18]

Counter-thesis

Why this may be wrong

  1. 1.Model confidence is 0.16; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
  2. 2.Only $0 of depth within 5% of mid; size is limited and slippage will reduce realised edge.

Key catalysts

  1. 1.Resolution in 0.0 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.

What would invalidate this

  1. 1.Market price moving to 0% would close the gap.
  2. 2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
  3. 3.Liquidity falling materially below $49,575 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.

Signal breakdown

Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.

SignalEstimateStrengthConf.WeightContributionExplanation
Momentumv1.0.0MODEL0.1%0.330.300.18-0.0206Price momentum 1h: +0.00 logit, 6h: -0.85 logit (2 horizons, 50% agreement).
Cross-marketv1.0.0MODEL0.3%0.130.35——Mutually-exclusive group of 17 markets sums to 102.6% against a constraint of exactly 100% (+2.6pp overround); normalising implies 0.3% for this market.
Market impliedv1.0.0MARKET0.1%1.000.912.72+0.0000Market-implied probability 0.1% (source: last_tick).

Our forecast history

Every forecast we have recorded on this market, including the wrong ones. Append-only — never edited after the fact.

As ofMarketFair est.EdgeConf.Score
1h ago0.1%0.1%-0.00pp0.160.56
4h ago0.1%0.1%-0.01pp0.150.52
7h ago0.4%0.3%-0.00pp0.321.13
10h ago0.3%0.3%-0.01pp0.150.52
13h ago0.4%0.4%-0.01pp0.140.49
16h ago0.7%0.7%+0.00pp0.000.00
17h ago0.9%0.9%-0.00pp0.110.40

Order book

captured 1h ago

One-sided order book.

Only one side has resting orders, so there is no mid price. The venue reports a price of ask/2 in this state, which is an arithmetic artefact rather than a probability — this market is excluded from edge analysis.

Best bid
—
Best ask
0.10%

Tradeability

Whether the edge is actually capturable

Executable price
—
Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee)
-0.0010
Spread
—
Depth within 5%
$0
Signal score
0.56

Related markets

Verified deterministic relationships only

Resolution criteria

Source: https://x.com/elonmusk

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 1 12:00 PM ET to September 8, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.