Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026?
Price history
Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.
Thesis
Why the estimate deviates from the market
- 1.Price momentum 1h: -0.67 logit, 6h: -1.02 logit (2 horizons, 100% agreement). [momentum v1.0.0, weight 0.27]
Counter-thesis
Why this may be wrong
- 1.Mutually-exclusive group of 17 markets sums to 97.3% against a constraint of exactly 100% (-2.7pp underround); normalising implies 2.8% for this market. [cross_market v1.0.0, weight 0.72]
- 2.Model confidence is 0.17; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
- 3.Only $0 of depth within 5% of mid; size is limited and slippage will reduce realised edge.
Key catalysts
- 1.Resolution in 0.0 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.
- 2.Related-market inconsistency may resolve through arbitrage in either leg.
What would invalidate this
- 1.Market price moving to 3% would close the gap.
- 2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
- 3.Liquidity falling materially below $3,820 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.
Signal breakdown
Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.
| Signal | Estimate | Strength | Conf. | Weight | Contribution | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Momentumv1.0.0 | MODEL | 2.1% | 0.67 | 0.45 | 0.27 | -0.0633 | Price momentum 1h: -0.67 logit, 6h: -1.02 logit (2 horizons, 100% agreement). |
| Cross-marketv1.0.0 | MODEL | 2.8% | 0.14 | 0.36 | 0.72 | +0.0201 | Mutually-exclusive group of 17 markets sums to 97.3% against a constraint of exactly 100% (-2.7pp underround); normalising implies 2.8% for this market. |
| Book imbalancev1.0.0 | MODEL | 3.4% | 1.00 | 0.12 | — | — | Order book shows ask-side pressure (-99.5% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $7 of depth. |
| Liquidity shiftv1.0.0 | MODEL | — | 1.00 | 0.55 | 0.22 | +0.0000 | Liquidity increased 13337% to $3,820; spread +700%. |
| Market impliedv1.0.0 | MARKET | 2.7% | 1.00 | 0.72 | 2.16 | +0.0000 | Market-implied probability 2.7% (source: book_mid). |
Our forecast history
Every forecast we have recorded on this market, including the wrong ones. Append-only — never edited after the fact.
| As of | Market | Fair est. | Edge | Conf. | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h ago | 2.7% | 2.7% | -0.02pp | 0.17 | 0.61 |
| 4h ago | 5.1% | 5.0% | -0.12pp | 0.12 | 0.45 |
| 7h ago | 7.1% | 7.2% | +0.05pp | 0.11 | 0.38 |
| 10h ago | 3.4% | 3.3% | -0.08pp | 0.16 | 0.56 |
| 13h ago | 4.5% | 4.4% | -0.14pp | 0.13 | 0.48 |
| 16h ago | 10.5% | 10.4% | -0.07pp | 0.06 | 0.21 |
| 17h ago | 11.5% | 11.4% | -0.11pp | 0.17 | 0.63 |
Order book
captured 1h ago
Tradeability
Whether the edge is actually capturable
- Executable price
- —
- Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee)
- -0.0008
- Spread
- +0.80pp
- Depth within 5%
- $0
- Signal score
- 0.61
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Verified deterministic relationships only
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Resolution criteria
Source: https://x.com/elonmusk
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 1 12:00 PM ET to September 8, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.