Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026?
Price history
Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.
Thesis
Why the estimate deviates from the market
- 1.Mutually-exclusive group of 17 markets sums to 103.6% against a constraint of exactly 100% (+3.6pp overround); normalising implies 93.7% for this market. [cross_market v1.0.0, weight 0.79]
- 2.Order book shows ask-side pressure (-95.4% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $16,882 of depth. [book_imbalance v1.0.0, weight 0.36]
Counter-thesis
Why this may be wrong
- 1.Price momentum 1h: +0.67 logit, 6h: +1.00 logit (2 horizons, 100% agreement). [momentum v1.0.0, weight 0.27]
- 2.Model confidence is 0.33; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
- 3.Only $866 of depth within 5% of mid; size is limited and slippage will reduce realised edge.
Key catalysts
- 1.Resolution in 0.0 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.
- 2.Related-market inconsistency may resolve through arbitrage in either leg.
What would invalidate this
- 1.Market price moving to 97% would close the gap.
- 2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
- 3.Liquidity falling materially below $16,882 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.
Signal breakdown
Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.
| Signal | Estimate | Strength | Conf. | Weight | Contribution | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-marketv1.0.0 | MODEL | 93.7% | 0.18 | 0.40 | 0.79 | -0.6453 | Mutually-exclusive group of 17 markets sums to 103.6% against a constraint of exactly 100% (+3.6pp overround); normalising implies 93.7% for this market. |
| Book imbalancev1.0.0 | MODEL | 95.6% | 0.95 | 0.60 | 0.36 | -0.1555 | Order book shows ask-side pressure (-95.4% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $16,882 of depth. |
| Momentumv1.0.0 | MODEL | 97.7% | 0.66 | 0.45 | 0.27 | +0.0627 | Price momentum 1h: +0.67 logit, 6h: +1.00 logit (2 horizons, 100% agreement). |
| Liquidity shiftv1.0.0 | MODEL | — | 0.65 | 0.53 | 0.21 | +0.0000 | Liquidity increased 65% to $16,882; spread -80%. |
| Market impliedv1.0.0 | MARKET | 97.1% | 1.00 | 0.83 | 2.50 | +0.0000 | Market-implied probability 97.1% (source: book_mid). |
Our forecast history
Every forecast we have recorded on this market, including the wrong ones. Append-only — never edited after the fact.
| As of | Market | Fair est. | Edge | Conf. | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55m ago | 97.1% | 96.6% | -0.53pp | 0.33 | 1.37 |
| 4h ago | 94.5% | 94.4% | -0.07pp | 0.24 | 1.00 |
| 7h ago | 92.5% | 92.2% | -0.30pp | 0.31 | 1.54 |
| 10h ago | 74.5% | 74.7% | +0.21pp | 0.26 | 1.01 |
| 13h ago | 63.5% | 63.9% | +0.43pp | 0.15 | 0.66 |
| 16h ago | 65.5% | 64.9% | -0.57pp | 0.10 | 0.49 |
| 17h ago | 62.0% | 61.1% | -0.94pp | 0.26 | 1.15 |
Order book
captured 57m ago
Tradeability
Whether the edge is actually capturable
- Executable price
- 94.07%
- Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee)
- -0.4228
- Spread
- +0.20pp
- Depth within 5%
- $866
- Signal score
- 1.37
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Verified deterministic relationships only
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Resolution criteria
Source: https://x.com/elonmusk
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 1 12:00 PM ET to September 8, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.