Discovery
Where the market and our estimates disagree.
stale dataas of 2.6h agoensemble-v1.2.0late: clob_book, ensemble_forecasts, gamma_events
Markets tracked
9,144
Open
7,557
Forecasts recorded
1,000
Graph edges
44,177
Dislocations
35
Price ticks
21,509
Largest Estimated Edges
Biggest gaps between our estimate and the market. MODEL ESTIMATE.
| Market | Market | Fair est. | Edge | Conf. | Score | EV / $1 | Liquidity | Spread | Resolves | Top signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56.5% | 59.3% | +2.77pp | 0.43medium | 2.17 | -0.022 | $5.0k | +1.0pp | 3.8mo | whale_activity(3) | |
| 51.5% | 54.2% | +2.71pp | 0.58medium | 4.63 | +0.041 | $604.9k | +1.0pp | 7.7d | book_imbalance(3) | |
| 58.5% | 55.9% | -2.62pp | 0.44medium | 4.13 | +0.049 | $180.3k | +1.0pp | 7.4d | book_imbalance(2) | |
| 40.5% | 38.0% | -2.46pp | 0.35medium | 1.84 | +0.009 | $7.7k | +1.0pp | 9.8h | book_imbalance(2) | |
| 56.5% | 58.7% | +2.22pp | 0.43medium | 3.63 | +0.012 | $53.3k | +1.0pp | 10.5h | book_imbalance(2) | |
| 34.8% | 36.9% | +2.19pp | 0.38medium | 2.30 | +0.042 | $15.1k | +0.1pp | 7.7mo | book_imbalance(2) | |
| 60.5% | 62.7% | +2.15pp | 0.59medium | 4.55 | +0.010 | $247.8k | +1.0pp | 12.8h | book_imbalance(3) | |
| 52.5% | 50.5% | -2.00pp | 0.45medium | 3.46 | +0.013 | $256.9k | +1.0pp | 3.0mo | book_imbalance(2) |
Best Risk-Adjusted
Ranked by signal score: edge × confidence × tradeability.
| Market | Market | Fair est. | Edge | Conf. | Score | EV / $1 | Liquidity | Spread | Resolves | Top signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51.5% | 54.2% | +2.71pp | 0.58medium | 4.63 | +0.041 | $604.9k | +1.0pp | 7.7d | book_imbalance(3) | |
| 60.5% | 62.7% | +2.15pp | 0.59medium | 4.55 | +0.010 | $247.8k | +1.0pp | 12.8h | book_imbalance(3) | |
| 58.5% | 55.9% | -2.62pp | 0.44medium | 4.13 | +0.049 | $180.3k | +1.0pp | 7.4d | book_imbalance(2) | |
| 69.5% | 71.5% | +1.97pp | 0.45medium | 4.02 | +0.020 | $146.5k | +1.0pp | 11.8h | book_imbalance(2) | |
| 87.5% | 86.2% | -1.31pp | 0.46medium | 3.92 | +0.061 | $2.65M | +1.0pp | 1.8mo | book_imbalance(2) | |
| 54.5% | 53.1% | -1.44pp | 0.44medium | 3.88 | +0.016 | $101.6k | +1.0pp | 25.7d | book_imbalance(2) | |
| 56.5% | 58.1% | +1.65pp | 0.43medium | 3.88 | +0.019 | $141.8k | +1.0pp | 12.8h | book_imbalance(2) | |
| 47.5% | 46.1% | -1.38pp | 0.42medium | 3.78 | +0.016 | $165.0k | +1.0pp | 7.7d | book_imbalance(3) |
Resolving Soon
Near-term resolutions with an estimated edge.
| Market | Market | Fair est. | Edge | Conf. | Score | EV / $1 | Liquidity | Spread | Resolves | Top signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 82.5% | 83.0% | +0.52pp | 0.24low | 2.96 | -0.012 | $37.6k | +1.0pp | 0m | book_imbalance(2) | |
| 66.0% | 66.7% | +0.72pp | 0.33low | 1.57 | -0.005 | $7.0k | +2.0pp | 0m | book_imbalance(2) | |
| 64.5% | 65.8% | +1.29pp | 0.35low | 1.82 | -0.004 | $7.0k | +1.0pp | 3.1h | whale_activity(3) | |
| 44.5% | 45.5% | +1.02pp | 0.39medium | 2.31 | +0.011 | $21.5k | +1.0pp | 6.8h | book_imbalance(2) | |
| 52.5% | 53.4% | +0.88pp | 0.37medium | 1.83 | +0.006 | $11.7k | +1.0pp | 7.8h | book_imbalance(2) | |
| 62.5% | 61.6% | -0.92pp | 0.43medium | 3.70 | +0.010 | $357.4k | +1.0pp | 8.8h | book_imbalance(3) | |
| 42.5% | 40.5% | -1.96pp | 0.41medium | 3.56 | +0.024 | $71.8k | +1.0pp | 8.8h | book_imbalance(2) | |
| 40.5% | 38.0% | -2.46pp | 0.35medium | 1.84 | +0.009 | $7.7k | +1.0pp | 9.8h | book_imbalance(2) |
Cross-Market Inconsistencies
Mutually-exclusive groups violating their probability constraint. MARKET FACT.
| Event group | Legs | Constraint | Σ P(yes) | Indicative | Executable | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FC Utrecht vs. Go Ahead Eagles | 3 | sum == 1 | 1.1060 | +10.60pp | n/a | exhaustive |
Discord IPO Closing Market Cap | 8 | sum == 1 | 0.9070 | -9.30pp | n/a | exhaustive |
Next James Bond actor? | 24 | sum <= 1 | 1.0810 | +8.10pp | n/a | augmented |
NCAA Football: 2027 National Champion | 16 | sum <= 1 | 1.0665 | +6.65pp | n/a | augmented |
Sweden Parliamentary Election: M Vote Share? | 4 | sum == 1 | 0.9425 | -5.75pp | n/a | exhaustive |
UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion | 36 | sum <= 1 | 1.0535 | +5.35pp | n/a | augmented |
Highest temperature in Dallas on September 9? | 11 | sum == 1 | 1.0500 | +5.00pp | n/a | exhaustive |
Bundesliga: 2027 Champion | 18 | sum <= 1 | 1.0460 | +4.60pp | n/a | augmented |
Breaking Markets
Largest 24h price moves on liquid markets. MARKET FACT.
8
| Market | Prob. | 24h | Volume 24h | Liquidity | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100.0% | +94.3pp | $53 | $43.5k | +0.1pp | |
| 100.0% | +91.5pp | $58.2k | $27.7k | +0.1pp | |
| 100.0% | +87.5pp | $2.1k | $27.5k | +0.1pp | |
| 0.1% | -85.5pp | $13.2k | $117.6k | +0.1pp | |
| 100.0% | +85.5pp | $5 | $16.4k | +0.1pp | |
| 100.0% | +85.0pp | $6.3k | $37.2k | +0.1pp | |
| 100.0% | +84.5pp | $1.4k | $16.6k | +0.1pp | |
| 100.0% | +83.5pp | $9.2k | $20.3k | +0.1pp |
Trending
Highest 24h volume. MARKET FACT.
8
| Market | Prob. | 24h | Volume 24h | Liquidity | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34.5% | -5.0pp | $2.22M | $314.2k | +1.0pp | |
| 5.1% | -36.4pp | $1.67M | $29.1k | +1.5pp | |
| 64.5% | +24.0pp | $1.61M | $318.5k | +1.0pp | |
| 0.4% | +0.1pp | $1.24M | $2.14M | +0.1pp | |
| 97.3% | +7.8pp | $1.23M | $116.6k | +0.1pp | |
| 96.5% | +16.0pp | $818.8k | $222.2k | +0.3pp | |
| 62.5% | — | $768.6k | $317.7k | +1.0pp | |
| 47.5% | -4.0pp | $646.5k | $793.1k | +1.0pp |
High Liquidity
Deepest books — where size can actually be executed.
8
| Market | Prob. | 24h | Volume 24h | Liquidity | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1% | — | $799 | $2.90M | +0.1pp | |
| 0.1% | — | $997 | $2.89M | +0.1pp | |
| 0.1% | — | $102 | $2.89M | +0.1pp | |
| 0.1% | — | $814 | $2.85M | +0.1pp | |
| 0.1% | — | $817 | $2.82M | +0.1pp | |
| 0.1% | -0.1pp | $5.7k | $2.80M | +0.1pp | |
| 0.1% | — | $1.4k | $2.76M | +0.1pp | |
| 0.1% | -0.1pp | $791 | $2.75M | +0.1pp |
Newly Created
Recently listed markets, often before price discovery.
8
| Market | Prob. | 24h | Volume 24h | Liquidity | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50.0% | — | — | — | +100.0pp | |
| 50.0% | — | — | — | +100.0pp | |
| 50.0% | — | — | — | +100.0pp | |
| 9.5% | — | — | $170 | +19.0pp | |
| 90.5% | — | — | $167 | +19.0pp | |
| 0.5% | — | — | $646 | +1.0pp | |
| 0.5% | — | — | $646 | +1.0pp | |
| 99.5% | — | — | $760 | +1.0pp |
Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.